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Bet Sizing Math
The numbers behind every bet size: how much equity a call needs, how often a bluff has to work, and how the theory balances value and bluffs.
Caller needs equity–pot odds
Minimum defense frequency–continue this often vs a bluff
Bluff needs folds–break-even for a pure bluff
River bluffs in betting range––
Common sizes
| Size | Pot odds | MDF | Bluff needs | Value : Bluff |
|---|
The formulas
- Pot odds (equity to call) = bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet)
- MDF = pot ÷ (pot + bet). Defend less than this and any two cards profit as a bluff.
- Bluff break-even = bet ÷ (pot + bet). The fold percentage a zero-equity bluff needs.
- River bluff share = bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet) of a polarized betting range. This makes the caller's bluff-catchers indifferent.
These are the baseline. If a player population folds far more than MDF, your bluffs print; if they never fold, stop bluffing and value bet thinner. The adjustment should be as big as your evidence, and no bigger.